Leo Team vs Ursa Prediction — CS2 Expert Pick

Ursa hold a commanding 3-0 head-to-head record against Leo Team, including a recent 2-0 Bo3 win on March 25, 2026 — just 18 days before this rematch. That direct result is the most significant data point in this NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Bo3. Ursa's career winrate of 61.38% (89W-56L) is notably higher than Leo Team's 53.62% (200W-173L), reflecting Ursa's stronger historical performance. The market at both Thunderpick and Epicbet has Ursa as favorites at 1.61, implying approximately 62% probability — consistent with our analysis.

The form picture is more nuanced: Leo Team are at 6W-4L (60%) in their last 10, while Ursa have slipped to 4W-6L (40%) recently. Ursa's recent losses include BIG (0-2), ASTRAL (0-2), Phantom (1-2), TNT (1-2), ECSTATIC (1-2), and Just Players (1-2) — a concerning run of results. However, Leo Team's recent form also includes a 0-2 loss to Ursa on March 25 and losses to ESC Gaming and Rebels Gaming. Leo Team's win over Brute (2-0) on April 7 is a positive sign.

Individual player data is limited: Leo Team's amster rates at 1.03 (70.96 ADR, 71.53% KAST) and Ursa's deeN at 1.01 (69.75 ADR, 69.94% KAST) — essentially equal. The H2H dominance and career winrate edge push us toward Ursa, but Ursa's poor recent form keeps confidence modest at 62.