NRG vs BIG — CS2 Match BO3 at Stage 1

NRG

WIN PROB

35% : 65%

✓ BIG

BIG enter this IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 Bo3 as the clear market favorite at 1.38 odds, and the data supports that assessment. Their roster — featuring blameF (1.24 rating), gr1ks (1.21), and faveN (1.13) — averages 1.17 across the top five, with a team ADR of 78.7 and KAST of 73.5%. Their recent form of 5W-5L in the last 10 matches is solid, including wins over THUNDER dOWNUNDER and Gaimin Gladiators in this tournament. BIG are ranked #39 on HLTV with a career winrate of 56.63% across 830 maps.NRG (HLTV #33) are in poor form heading into this match: 3W-7L in their last 10, including losses to M80 (0-2), MOUZ (1-2), and GamerLegion. Their roster of oSee (1.19), XotiC (1.17), and Brehze (1.15) averages 1.15 in rating — slightly below BIG's 1.17. The H2H record shows NRG 2-0 BIG, but those matches are from 2018 and 2019 — effectively irrelevant to the current rosters and meta. NRG's current lineup (with Grim joining in February 2026) has no meaningful H2H data against this BIG squad.The combination of BIG's superior recent form, marginally better player stats, and NRG's alarming 3W-7L run makes BIG the clear pick. The 1.38 odds imply roughly 72% win probability, which aligns with our analysis. NRG's individual talent keeps this from being a high-confidence call, but BIG's form edge is decisive.