Just Players vs SAW — CS2 Match BO3 at Playoffs

Just Players ✓

WIN PROB

62% : 38%

SAW

This is a fascinating matchup where the statistics and the betting market tell very different stories. Just Players arrive with a strong 7W-3L record in their last 10 matches (70% win rate), led by spirit (1.13 rating, 78.21 ADR) and H1te (1.09 rating). Their team average of 1.06 in player rating meaningfully exceeds SAW's 0.95. SAW, meanwhile, are in poor form at 3W-7L (30% win rate), with no player exceeding 1.07 (tuxa) and a team average ADR of just 67.96.The betting market prices SAW as heavy favorites at 1.22 (Thunderpick), implying roughly 82% win probability — a massive gap that appears to be driven by SAW's brand recognition and historical pedigree (60.55% career winrate across 687 maps) rather than current form. Just Players are priced at 3.80, implying only 26% win probability. There is no H2H history between these teams.Our data-driven analysis supports Just Players as the better team right now: superior recent form (70% vs 30%), higher average player ratings (1.06 vs 0.95), and better KAST (71.47% vs 67.29%). In a Bo3 format where consistency matters, Just Players' current form is a compelling argument. We pick Just Players as a value upset, though the market's heavy lean on SAW reflects real uncertainty about Just Players' ceiling at this level.