Lilmix vs ReThink — CS2 Match BO3 at Group A

LILMIX

WIN PROB

38% : 62%

✓ RT

This Svenska CS-Ligan elimination match presents a clear form divergence. Lilmix have been in freefall with a 1W-9L record in their last 10 matches — a 10% win rate that is alarming regardless of opponent quality. ReThink, by contrast, sit at a balanced 5W-5L, showing they can compete and win at this level. Despite Lilmix's stronger career record (338W-414L, 44.95% WR vs ReThink's 11W-20L, 35.48% WR), recent form is the more relevant indicator for a single-series elimination match.Statistically, the teams are very close. ReThink's average player rating of 0.99 edges Lilmix's 0.98, with Rack leading at 1.09 rating and 78.52 ADR. Lilmix's best performer PlesseN rates 1.07 with 79.07 ADR. Both teams have similar KAST averages (ReThink 68.9% vs Lilmix 67.6%), and ADR figures are comparable. There is no head-to-head history between these teams. The betting market prices Lilmix at 1.73 (implied ~58%) and ReThink at 1.94 (implied ~52%), slightly favoring Lilmix — but this appears to be based on historical reputation rather than current form.In an elimination match where momentum matters, Lilmix's catastrophic recent run (1W-9L) is a major red flag. ReThink's 5W-5L form, combined with marginally better player ratings and KAST, makes them the value pick here. The market undervalues ReThink's current form advantage.